How to read the qref model

Each coloured point is an observed daily qref estimate from one running-calibration window. The observations from different windows overlap strongly and are therefore not independent.

The black latent curve is the model's common estimate of qref. It is decomposed into a gradual component, representing persistent smooth drift, and an abrupt component, representing detected level changes. Orange vertical lines mark days classified as jumps.

The operational correction is latent qref minus the fixed reference level. For the vertical-column display, qref_correction / AMF is subtracted from the original column. A shaded band is shown only when uncertainty bounds are available in the saved product. The qref bounds are conditional on the selected smooth+jump model and do not include additional jump-model-selection uncertainty.